Over The Falls π
Thistle Queen
Victoria Command
Cowgirls Humor
Rivers Run Red
Princess Em
Special Collette
Canela Fina
Form Annotations
- ##% — Consistency rating: The horse's recent strike-rate or placing percentage
- Improving Last 3 Races
- Improved A lot Last 2 Races
- Placed Last 3 Races
- Likely jumped up in class
- Likely dropped in class
Abbreviations
Race Prediction
Top Pick: Over The Fallsπ Winner
Best Each-Way Bet: Canela Fina
Surprise Package: Thistle Queen
The 17:50 at Thistledown (usa) features a field of 8 runners.
The field averages an official rating of 38.9, with the strongest runner rated 46 and the weakest at 25. The average time since last run across the field is 80.6 days, indicating runners are somewhat freshened up. Over half the field carries a rating below 75, indicating this may be a race where improvement is required for success at this level.
Over The Falls
Recent form figures of 6144-22 reveal a runner in winning mood, having struck once in the last six outings - a profile that commands respect.
Notably, the trajectory of recent performances suggests upward momentum that could see this runner go close today.
Top-rated on the numbers at 46, holding a useful 3-point edge over the opposition and entitled to respect on the figures.
Top weight in the race at 4
8-7, though the spread across the field is narrow and the burden should not be prohibitive.
The youngest in the race at just 4 years old, this runner may still be on the upgrade and has scope to outrun its age profile.
A recent outing 14 days ago puts this runner below the field average of 80.6 days - ticking over nicely and likely sharper than most.
Top of the tree on win chance at 71% - holding a useful edge over the opposition and the strongest statistical profile in this contest.
The partnership of jockey Jose Bracho and trainer Justin Radosevich completes the picture for this runner.
Thistle Queen
Recent form figures of 516/27- reveal a runner in winning mood, having struck once in the last six outings - a profile that commands respect.
However, the downward trend in recent efforts raises questions about whether this runner can rediscover its best form.
Top-rated on the numbers at 46, holding a useful 3-point edge over the opposition and entitled to respect on the figures.
Top weight in the race at 4
8-7, though the spread across the field is narrow and the burden should not be prohibitive.
The youngest in the race at just 4 years old, this runner may still be on the upgrade and has scope to outrun its age profile.
The longest absence in the field by some margin at 462 days - genuine uncertainty around current ability and best watched unless market support suggests all is well.
Second on the win chance ratings at 68%, lying just 3% shy of the top pick and firmly in the championship picture on the numbers.
The partnership of jockey Ricardo Feliciano and trainer Joseph Poole completes the picture for this runner.
Victoria Command
Form figures of 6466-88 paint a picture of steady if unspectacular recent efforts, with this runner yet to find the winning formula in its latest assignments.
Above the field average on OR at 43 and only 3 points below the top-rated, this runner profiles as a competitive horse with the scope to outrun its mark.
Top weight in the race at 5
8-7, though the spread across the field is narrow and the burden should not be prohibitive.
A 5-year-old operating above the field average age, bringing maturity and racecraft to the table.
The most recent runner in the field with an outing 11 days ago, ticking over nicely and arriving with conditioning exactly where it needs to be.
The weakest win chance in the field at 42% - 29% below the top-rated and 14.8% under the field average - a genuine outsider on the numbers with plenty to find.
The partnership of jockey Deshawn Parker and trainer Richard Genovese completes the picture for this runner.
Cowgirls Humor
Recent form 567-045 contains a non-completion, suggesting this runner has faced difficulties in finishing its races - a concern that needs addressing.
An OR of 27 places this runner below the field average (38.9) by 11.9 points, giving away 19 points to the top-rated - competitive enough to get involved but likely needing favours to win.
Top weight in the race at 5
8-7, though the spread across the field is narrow and the burden should not be prohibitive.
A 5-year-old operating above the field average age, bringing maturity and racecraft to the table.
A recent outing 14 days ago puts this runner below the field average of 80.6 days - ticking over nicely and likely sharper than most.
The weakest win chance in the field at 42% - 29% below the top-rated and 14.8% under the field average - a genuine outsider on the numbers with plenty to find.
The partnership of jockey Noel Vigil and trainer Robin Schuster completes the picture for this runner.
Rivers Run Red
Recent form figures of 146355 reveal a runner in winning mood, having struck once in the last six outings - a profile that commands respect.
However, the downward trend in recent efforts raises questions about whether this runner can rediscover its best form.
The 40 official rating sits above the field average (38.9), though the 6-point deficit to the top-rated leaves it with work to do against the classier types.
Top weight in the race at 5
8-7, though the spread across the field is narrow and the burden should not be prohibitive.
A 5-year-old operating above the field average age, bringing maturity and racecraft to the table.
Returning after 20 days, quicker back than the 80.6-day field average - should arrive with more race sharpness than the typical runner here.
Above the field average on win chance at 64% and only 7% below the top projection - a competitive middleweight on the data with scope to outrun its rating.
The partnership of jockey Rocco Bowen and trainer Julie Pappada completes the picture for this runner.
Princess Em
Recent Form 855433 demonstrates consistent place-getting ability, with this runner hitting the frame regularly even if the winning post has proved elusive of late.
Notably, the trajectory of recent performances suggests upward momentum that could see this runner go close today.
An OR of 38 places this runner below the field average (38.9) by 0.9 points, giving away 8 points to the top-rated - competitive enough to get involved but likely needing favours to win.
Top weight in the race at 6
8-7, though the spread across the field is narrow and the burden should not be prohibitive.
At 6 years old, this is one of the more experienced runner in the field - an age that brings maturity though perhaps not the zip of younger rivals.
A recent outing 14 days ago puts this runner below the field average of 80.6 days - ticking over nicely and likely sharper than most.
The 58% projection sits above the field average (56.8%), though the 13% gap to the top-rated suggests this runner is more place than win material.
The partnership of jockey Anthony Rodriguez and trainer Susan Yoder completes the picture for this runner.
Special Collette
Form figures of 86-3767 paint a picture of steady if unspectacular recent efforts, with this runner yet to find the winning formula in its latest assignments.
However, the downward trend in recent efforts raises questions about whether this runner can rediscover its best form.
Anchored at the bottom of the ratings on 25, this runner is rated 21 points inferior to the top-rated and trails the field average by 13.9 points - a sizeable task on the numbers.
Top weight in the race at 4
8-7, though the spread across the field is narrow and the burden should not be prohibitive.
The youngest in the race at just 4 years old, this runner may still be on the upgrade and has scope to outrun its age profile.
Returning after 61 days, quicker back than the 80.6-day field average - should arrive with more race sharpness than the typical runner here.
A 44% win chance places this runner below the field average (56.8%) by 12.8%, giving away 27% to the top-rated - competitive enough to get involved but likely needing favours to win.
The partnership of jockey Fernando Becerra Salazar and trainer Richard Zielinski completes the picture for this runner.
Canela Fina
Recent form figures of 6/3146-7 reveal a runner in winning mood, having struck once in the last six outings - a profile that commands respect.
However, the downward trend in recent efforts raises questions about whether this runner can rediscover its best form.
Top-rated on the numbers at 46, holding a useful 3-point edge over the opposition and entitled to respect on the figures.
Top weight in the race at 6
8-7, though the spread across the field is narrow and the burden should not be prohibitive.
At 6 years old, this is one of the more experienced runner in the field - an age that brings maturity though perhaps not the zip of younger rivals.
Returning after 49 days, quicker back than the 80.6-day field average - should arrive with more race sharpness than the typical runner here.
Third on the win chance ratings at 65% and only 6% off the top projection - a live each-way prospect with the numbers to support a place claim.
The partnership of jockey Christian Pilares and trainer Richard Genovese completes the picture for this runner.
In summary, the 17:50 at Thistledown (usa) presents a competitive puzzle where form, fitness, and tactical positioning will all play their part in determining the outcome.