Multiple runners in this 22:45 at Penn National (usa) carry strong statistical projections, setting up what could be a compelling duel at the head of the market.

The field averages an official rating of 69.7, with the strongest runner rated 85 and the weakest at 52. The average time since last run across the field is 86.1 days, indicating runners are somewhat freshened up. Over half the field carries a rating below 75, indicating this may be a race where improvement is required for success at this level.



Pageant Princess
Recent form figures of 1442-63 reveal a runner in winning mood, having struck once in the last six outings - a profile that commands respect.
Top-rated on the numbers at 85, holding a useful 3-point edge over the opposition and entitled to respect on the figures.
Top weight in the race at 7 8-8, though the spread across the field is narrow and the burden should not be prohibitive.
At 7 years old, this is one of the more experienced runner in the field - an age that brings maturity though perhaps not the zip of younger rivals.
Returning after 77 days, quicker back than the 86.1-day field average - should arrive with more race sharpness than the typical runner here.
Third on the win chance ratings at 70% and only 1% off the top projection - a live each-way prospect with the numbers to support a place claim.
The partnership of jockey Jomar Torres and trainer Kathleen DeMasi completes the picture for this runner.


Kissed At Dawn
Recent form figures of 114458 reveal a runner in winning mood, having struck twice or more in the last six outings - Proven quality and a profile that commands respect.
However, the downward trend in recent efforts raises questions about whether this runner can rediscover its best form.
An OR of 60 places this runner below the field average (69.7) by 9.7 points, giving away 25 points to the top-rated - competitive enough to get involved but likely needing favours to win.
The lowest weighted runner in the field at 5 8-6, enjoying a 2lb advantage over the top weight and 1.4lb below the average - a featherweight burden that could prove decisive.
The youngest in the race at just 5 years old, this runner may still be on the upgrade and has scope to outrun its age profile.
Returning after 33 days, quicker back than the 86.1-day field average - should arrive with more race sharpness than the typical runner here.
Above the field average on win chance at 65% and only 6% below the top projection - a competitive middleweight on the data with scope to outrun its rating.
The partnership of jockey Martina Rojas and trainer Charles DeMario completes the picture for this runner.


Bess' Candy
Recent form figures of 503147- reveal a runner in winning mood, having struck once in the last six outings - a profile that commands respect.
Notably, the trajectory of recent performances suggests upward momentum that could see this runner go close today.
The 71 official rating sits above the field average (69.7), though the 14-point deficit to the top-rated leaves it with work to do against the classier types.
Top weight in the race at 5 8-8, though the spread across the field is narrow and the burden should not be prohibitive.
The youngest in the race at just 5 years old, this runner may still be on the upgrade and has scope to outrun its age profile.
The longest absence in the field by some margin at 239 days - genuine uncertainty around current ability and best watched unless market support suggests all is well.
A 53% win chance places this runner below the field average (61.1%) by 8.1%, giving away 18% to the top-rated - competitive enough to get involved but likely needing favours to win.
The partnership of jockey Andrew Wolfsont and trainer Mark Salvaggio completes the picture for this runner.


La Lima
Recent Form 53-4265 demonstrates consistent place-getting ability, with this runner hitting the frame regularly even if the winning post has proved elusive of late.
Notably, the trajectory of recent performances suggests upward momentum that could see this runner go close today.
Anchored at the bottom of the ratings on 52, this runner is rated 33 points inferior to the top-rated and trails the field average by 17.7 points - a sizeable task on the numbers.
Top weight in the race at 7 8-8, though the spread across the field is narrow and the burden should not be prohibitive.
At 7 years old, this is one of the more experienced runner in the field - an age that brings maturity though perhaps not the zip of younger rivals.
A recent outing 14 days ago puts this runner below the field average of 86.1 days - ticking over nicely and likely sharper than most.
Above the field average on win chance at 62% and only 9% below the top projection - a competitive middleweight on the data with scope to outrun its rating.
The partnership of jockey Angel Quinones and trainer Mark Ippolito completes the picture for this runner.


Afterneath
Recent form figures of 1318-55 reveal a runner in winning mood, having struck twice or more in the last six outings - Proven quality and a profile that commands respect.
However, the downward trend in recent efforts raises questions about whether this runner can rediscover its best form.
The 73 official rating sits above the field average (69.7), though the 12-point deficit to the top-rated leaves it with work to do against the classier types.
Top weight in the race at 5 8-8, though the spread across the field is narrow and the burden should not be prohibitive.
The youngest in the race at just 5 years old, this runner may still be on the upgrade and has scope to outrun its age profile.
Returning after 27 days, quicker back than the 86.1-day field average - should arrive with more race sharpness than the typical runner here.
Above the field average on win chance at 65% and only 6% below the top projection - a competitive middleweight on the data with scope to outrun its rating.
The partnership of jockey Madeline Rowland and trainer Michael Gorham completes the picture for this runner.


Stassi
Recent form 05-5665 contains a non-completion, suggesting this runner has faced difficulties in finishing its races - a concern that needs addressing.
An OR of 65 places this runner below the field average (69.7) by 4.7 points, giving away 20 points to the top-rated - competitive enough to get involved but likely needing favours to win.
The lowest weighted runner in the field at 6 8-6, enjoying a 2lb advantage over the top weight and 1.4lb below the average - a featherweight burden that could prove decisive.
A 6-year-old operating above the field average age, bringing maturity and racecraft to the table.
The most recent runner in the field with an outing 13 days ago, ticking over nicely and arriving with conditioning exactly where it needs to be.
The weakest win chance in the field at 42% - 29% below the top-rated and 19.1% under the field average - a genuine outsider on the numbers with plenty to find.
The partnership of jockey Dexter Haddock and trainer Philip Aristone completes the picture for this runner.


The Furmanator
Recent form figures of 2/42617- reveal a runner in winning mood, having struck once in the last six outings - a profile that commands respect.
However, the downward trend in recent efforts raises questions about whether this runner can rediscover its best form.
Third on the ratings at 82 and only 3 points off the top-rated, this runner profiles as a live each-way prospect in this field.
Top weight in the race at 7 8-8, though the spread across the field is narrow and the burden should not be prohibitive.
At 7 years old, this is one of the more experienced runner in the field - an age that brings maturity though perhaps not the zip of younger rivals.
A lengthy 200-day absence - 113.9 days longer than the field average - introduces genuine uncertainty around current ability in this company.
Top of the tree on win chance at 71% - holding a useful edge over the opposition and the strongest statistical profile in this contest.
The partnership of jockey Inoel Beato and trainer Richard Vega completes the picture for this runner.


Pageant Princess
Recent form figures of 1442-63 reveal a runner in winning mood, having struck once in the last six outings - a profile that commands respect.
Top-rated on the numbers at 85, holding a useful 3-point edge over the opposition and entitled to respect on the figures.
Top weight in the race at 7 8-8, though the spread across the field is narrow and the burden should not be prohibitive.
At 7 years old, this is one of the more experienced runner in the field - an age that brings maturity though perhaps not the zip of younger rivals.
Returning after 77 days, quicker back than the 86.1-day field average - should arrive with more race sharpness than the typical runner here.
Third on the win chance ratings at 70% and only 1% off the top projection - a live each-way prospect with the numbers to support a place claim.
The partnership of jockey Jomar Torres and trainer Kathleen DeMasi completes the picture for this runner.


Kissed At Dawn
Recent form figures of 114458 reveal a runner in winning mood, having struck twice or more in the last six outings - Proven quality and a profile that commands respect.
However, the downward trend in recent efforts raises questions about whether this runner can rediscover its best form.
An OR of 60 places this runner below the field average (69.7) by 9.7 points, giving away 25 points to the top-rated - competitive enough to get involved but likely needing favours to win.
The lowest weighted runner in the field at 5 8-6, enjoying a 2lb advantage over the top weight and 1.4lb below the average - a featherweight burden that could prove decisive.
The youngest in the race at just 5 years old, this runner may still be on the upgrade and has scope to outrun its age profile.
Returning after 33 days, quicker back than the 86.1-day field average - should arrive with more race sharpness than the typical runner here.
Above the field average on win chance at 65% and only 6% below the top projection - a competitive middleweight on the data with scope to outrun its rating.
The partnership of jockey Martina Rojas and trainer Charles DeMario completes the picture for this runner.


Bess' Candy
Recent form figures of 503147- reveal a runner in winning mood, having struck once in the last six outings - a profile that commands respect.
Notably, the trajectory of recent performances suggests upward momentum that could see this runner go close today.
The 71 official rating sits above the field average (69.7), though the 14-point deficit to the top-rated leaves it with work to do against the classier types.
Top weight in the race at 5 8-8, though the spread across the field is narrow and the burden should not be prohibitive.
The youngest in the race at just 5 years old, this runner may still be on the upgrade and has scope to outrun its age profile.
The longest absence in the field by some margin at 239 days - genuine uncertainty around current ability and best watched unless market support suggests all is well.
A 53% win chance places this runner below the field average (61.1%) by 8.1%, giving away 18% to the top-rated - competitive enough to get involved but likely needing favours to win.
The partnership of jockey Andrew Wolfsont and trainer Mark Salvaggio completes the picture for this runner.


La Lima
Recent Form 53-4265 demonstrates consistent place-getting ability, with this runner hitting the frame regularly even if the winning post has proved elusive of late.
Notably, the trajectory of recent performances suggests upward momentum that could see this runner go close today.
Anchored at the bottom of the ratings on 52, this runner is rated 33 points inferior to the top-rated and trails the field average by 17.7 points - a sizeable task on the numbers.
Top weight in the race at 7 8-8, though the spread across the field is narrow and the burden should not be prohibitive.
At 7 years old, this is one of the more experienced runner in the field - an age that brings maturity though perhaps not the zip of younger rivals.
A recent outing 14 days ago puts this runner below the field average of 86.1 days - ticking over nicely and likely sharper than most.
Above the field average on win chance at 62% and only 9% below the top projection - a competitive middleweight on the data with scope to outrun its rating.
The partnership of jockey Angel Quinones and trainer Mark Ippolito completes the picture for this runner.


Afterneath
Recent form figures of 1318-55 reveal a runner in winning mood, having struck twice or more in the last six outings - Proven quality and a profile that commands respect.
However, the downward trend in recent efforts raises questions about whether this runner can rediscover its best form.
The 73 official rating sits above the field average (69.7), though the 12-point deficit to the top-rated leaves it with work to do against the classier types.
Top weight in the race at 5 8-8, though the spread across the field is narrow and the burden should not be prohibitive.
The youngest in the race at just 5 years old, this runner may still be on the upgrade and has scope to outrun its age profile.
Returning after 27 days, quicker back than the 86.1-day field average - should arrive with more race sharpness than the typical runner here.
Above the field average on win chance at 65% and only 6% below the top projection - a competitive middleweight on the data with scope to outrun its rating.
The partnership of jockey Madeline Rowland and trainer Michael Gorham completes the picture for this runner.


Stassi
Recent form 05-5665 contains a non-completion, suggesting this runner has faced difficulties in finishing its races - a concern that needs addressing.
An OR of 65 places this runner below the field average (69.7) by 4.7 points, giving away 20 points to the top-rated - competitive enough to get involved but likely needing favours to win.
The lowest weighted runner in the field at 6 8-6, enjoying a 2lb advantage over the top weight and 1.4lb below the average - a featherweight burden that could prove decisive.
A 6-year-old operating above the field average age, bringing maturity and racecraft to the table.
The most recent runner in the field with an outing 13 days ago, ticking over nicely and arriving with conditioning exactly where it needs to be.
The weakest win chance in the field at 42% - 29% below the top-rated and 19.1% under the field average - a genuine outsider on the numbers with plenty to find.
The partnership of jockey Dexter Haddock and trainer Philip Aristone completes the picture for this runner.


The Furmanator
Recent form figures of 2/42617- reveal a runner in winning mood, having struck once in the last six outings - a profile that commands respect.
However, the downward trend in recent efforts raises questions about whether this runner can rediscover its best form.
Third on the ratings at 82 and only 3 points off the top-rated, this runner profiles as a live each-way prospect in this field.
Top weight in the race at 7 8-8, though the spread across the field is narrow and the burden should not be prohibitive.
At 7 years old, this is one of the more experienced runner in the field - an age that brings maturity though perhaps not the zip of younger rivals.
A lengthy 200-day absence - 113.9 days longer than the field average - introduces genuine uncertainty around current ability in this company.
Top of the tree on win chance at 71% - holding a useful edge over the opposition and the strongest statistical profile in this contest.
The partnership of jockey Inoel Beato and trainer Richard Vega completes the picture for this runner.


In summary, the 22:45 at Penn National (usa) shapes as a contest where the leading contenders on the data hold clear advantages, and the race may be run to suit those with strong statistical profiles.