The 21:24 at Presque Isle Downs (usa) presents a significant ratings spread of 29lb from top to bottom, suggesting a potentially lopsided contest where the higher-rated runners may dominate.

The field averages an official rating of 66.2, with the strongest runner rated 85 and the weakest at 56. The average time since last run across the field is 147.7 days, indicating runners are somewhat freshened up. Over half the field carries a rating below 75, indicating this may be a race where improvement is required for success at this level.



Strawberry Sky
Recent form figures of 4124-35 reveal a runner in winning mood, having struck once in the last six outings - a profile that commands respect.
However, the downward trend in recent efforts raises questions about whether this runner can rediscover its best form.
Anchored at the bottom of the ratings on 56, this runner is rated 29 points inferior to the top-rated and trails the field average by 10.2 points - a sizeable task on the numbers.
Top weight in the race at 4 8-11, though the spread across the field is narrow and the burden should not be prohibitive.
The youngest in the race at just 4 years old, this runner may still be on the upgrade and has scope to outrun its age profile.
Returning after 36 days, quicker back than the 147.7-day field average - should arrive with more race sharpness than the typical runner here.
Second on the win chance ratings at 71%, lying just 5% shy of the top pick and firmly in the championship picture on the numbers.
The partnership of jockey Rosario Montanez and trainer Moises Valdez completes the picture for this runner.


What's Good
Form figures of 56276-4 paint a picture of steady if unspectacular recent efforts, with this runner yet to find the winning formula in its latest assignments.
However, the downward trend in recent efforts raises questions about whether this runner can rediscover its best form.
An OR of 61 places this runner below the field average (66.2) by 5.2 points, giving away 24 points to the top-rated - competitive enough to get involved but likely needing favours to win.
Top weight in the race at 6 8-11, though the spread across the field is narrow and the burden should not be prohibitive.
A 6-year-old operating above the field average age, bringing maturity and racecraft to the table.
The shortest absence in the race at 19 days, suggesting this runner has been kept busier than most and should arrive sharp enough.
A 55% win chance places this runner below the field average (58%) by 3%, giving away 21% to the top-rated - competitive enough to get involved but likely needing favours to win.
The partnership of jockey Addiel Ayala and trainer Debbie Schaber completes the picture for this runner.


Cherokee Chatter
Form figures of 555558- paint a picture of steady if unspectacular recent efforts, with this runner yet to find the winning formula in its latest assignments.
An OR of 60 places this runner below the field average (66.2) by 6.2 points, giving away 25 points to the top-rated - competitive enough to get involved but likely needing favours to win.
Top weight in the race at 9 8-11, though the spread across the field is narrow and the burden should not be prohibitive.
At 9 years old, this is one of the more experienced runner in the field - an age that brings maturity though perhaps not the zip of younger rivals.
A lengthy 229-day absence - 81.3 days longer than the field average - introduces genuine uncertainty around current ability in this company.
A 50% win chance places this runner below the field average (58%) by 8%, giving away 26% to the top-rated - competitive enough to get involved but likely needing favours to win.
The partnership of jockey Martina Rojas and trainer Cathy Rozantz completes the picture for this runner.


Raven Dance
Recent form figures of 251143- reveal a runner in winning mood, having struck twice or more in the last six outings - Proven quality and a profile that commands respect.
However, the downward trend in recent efforts raises questions about whether this runner can rediscover its best form.
Rated 68, this runner sits second on the figures though the 17-point gap to the top-rated suggests it will need to find improvement to turn the tables.
Top weight in the race at 4 8-11, though the spread across the field is narrow and the burden should not be prohibitive.
The youngest in the race at just 4 years old, this runner may still be on the upgrade and has scope to outrun its age profile.
A lengthy 228-day absence - 80.3 days longer than the field average - introduces genuine uncertainty around current ability in this company.
The standout selection on the data with a commanding 76% win probability - a 50% margin over the weakest in the field and the clear one to beat on the numbers.
The partnership of jockey Antonio Gallardo and trainer Todd Beattie completes the picture for this runner.


Verbal Geyser
Recent form 9770-40 contains a non-completion, suggesting this runner has faced difficulties in finishing its races - a concern that needs addressing.
An OR of 67 places this runner third on the figures, with the 18-point deficit to the top-rated leaving it with work to do against the classier types.
Top weight in the race at 5 8-11, though the spread across the field is narrow and the burden should not be prohibitive.
At 5 years old, this runner is younger than the field average and may have physical improvement still to come.
Returning after 137 days, quicker back than the 147.7-day field average - should arrive with more race sharpness than the typical runner here.
The weakest win chance in the field at 26% - 50% below the top-rated and 32% under the field average - a genuine outsider on the numbers with plenty to find.
The partnership of jockey Bailey Weatherly and trainer Michelle Brafford completes the picture for this runner.


La Crema
Recent form figures of 554231- reveal a runner in winning mood, having struck once in the last six outings - a profile that commands respect.
Notably, the trajectory of recent performances suggests upward momentum that could see this runner go close today.
The clear top-rated horse with an OR of 85, enjoying a commanding 17-point advantage over the next best and arriving with the strongest credentials in this 6-runner field.
Top weight in the race at 6 8-11, though the spread across the field is narrow and the burden should not be prohibitive.
A 6-year-old operating above the field average age, bringing maturity and racecraft to the table.
The longest absence in the field by some margin at 237 days - genuine uncertainty around current ability and best watched unless market support suggests all is well.
Third on the win chance ratings at 70% and only 6% off the top projection - a live each-way prospect with the numbers to support a place claim.
The partnership of jockey Gaddiel Martinez and trainer Elena Bondar completes the picture for this runner.


In summary, the 21:24 at Presque Isle Downs (usa) shapes as a contest where the leading contenders on the data hold clear advantages, and the race may be run to suit those with strong statistical profiles.